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Mounting concerns are present over the chance of military engagement among Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the sea coast through Eritrea has triggered a heated rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his government's access to the sea was an vital issue, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the two countries have often been tense. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict started in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "rectified soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for maritime entry describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on mid-September that attempts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Border

So far, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed training completions of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The leader of staff section of the military, the officer, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British military before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year civil war followed, ending with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two agreed to a statement that the conflict was concluded – a move that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have since broken down once more.