A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
